The proposed method is utilized to the prediction of extreme wind speed in different periods in Hong Kong. The proposed method is able to reproduce the correlation among typhoon key parameters accurately and thus can improve the prediction accuracy of extreme wind speed in the typhoon-prone regions. To cater for this need, this paper presents an improved typhoon simulation method by incorporating Latin hypercube sampling method into the traditional typhoon simulation method. Kim and Lee 13 developed a typhoon simulation method based on models for genesis, intensity, tracks and wind field to estimate the extreme wind speed of future typhoons.Īlthough the above research improves the application of typhoon simulation method in extreme wind speed prediction by developing typhoon model, increasing sample length and other related aspects, continuous efforts are still required to establish more accuracy typhoon simulation method. Ishihara and Yamaguchi 12 obtained extreme wind speeds over complex terrain with the typhoon simulation method and measure-correlate-predict method. Later, Vickery and Twisdale 10 obtained typhoon extreme wind speeds under different return periods along the typhoon-prone coastline of the United States by incorporating its developed typhoon model and filling model into typhoon simulation method. But different typhoon models developed by themselves were used in these studies. 6 also predicted extreme wind speeds with the typhoon simulation method. This method was first proposed by Russell 9 and applied to the prediction of extreme wind speeds in Texas coast. Finally, extreme wind speed analysis is used to obtain the extreme wind speeds under different return periods in the specific areas.
LATIN HYPERCUBE VS MONTE CARLO SERIES
Then, a series of typhoon key parameters are generated by Monte Carlo simulation method, and these typhoon key parameters are substituted into the typhoon model for a series of typhoon simulation. Within this method, historical typhoon wind data is first used directly or indirectly to determine the probability distributions of typhoon key parameters. The typhoon simulation method has been developed gradually and widely used to predict typhoon extreme wind speed 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10. In past years, many researchers have carried out a series of studies on the prediction of typhoon extreme wind speed. Thus, to ensure the safety of wind -sensitive structures in these areas, it is essential to determine extreme wind speeds of structures for a given return period which can provide support for the structure design and safety assessment 3, 4. The southeast coastal region of China is the typhoon-prone region of the Northwest Pacific area 2. Typhoon is the most often extreme weather on earth and gives a massive threat to the safety of wind-sensitive structures, such as tall buildings, long-span bridges and other unique buildings 1. Compared with the traditional typhoon simulation method, the improved typhoon simulation method has higher accuracy in predicting the typhoon extreme wind speed in Hong Kong, increasing by about 8% and 11% respectively at 200 m height and gradient height. The results show that the improved typhoon simulation method can generate the correlations among all typhoon key parameters satisfactorily. The results show that the correlation coefficients among typhoon key parameters can be maintained satisfactorily with this improved typhoon simulation method. To validate this method, two aspects of analysis is carried out, including correlation analysis among typhoon key parameters and prediction of extreme wind speeds under various return periods. Then, this method is applied to the prediction of extreme wind speeds under various return periods in Hong Kong. In this paper, the improved typhoon simulation method is first given a detailed introduction. In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of typhoon simulation method for extreme wind speed in typhoon prone areas, an improved typhoon simulation method is proposed by introducing the Latin hypercube sampling method into the traditional typhoon simulation method.
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